Tag Archives: Democratic Party

Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000

July 27, 2016 Thomas L. Knapp Leave a comment

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Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump says Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is a “fringe candidate.” I’m not sure what definition of “fringe” Trump is using. Johnson is a former governor, elected twice as a Republican in a Democrat-leaning state. Trump’s main presidential qualification seems to be his legendary skill at trolling his opponents on Twitter.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton hasn’t deigned to notice likely Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Instead she’s dispatched proxies like runner-up Bernie Sanders (“We have got to defeat Donald Trump. And we have got to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. … this is the real world that we live in”) to heap scorn on the practicality of a post-Philadelphia campaign from Clinton’s left.

OK, I admit it: History and money say the odds are with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton — that one of them will be the next president of the United States. The last time a third party or independent candidate really threatened to win the White House was 1992, when Ross Perot knocked down nearly 20% of the popular vote, having at one time polled ahead of both Republican incumbent George HW Bush and the eventual winner, Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

But it’s strange year. It feels like almost anything could happen. And while Clinton and Trump are the frontrunners, the field is, well, YUGE.

As of July 27, the Federal Elections Commission lists 1,814 candidates for president on its web site.

It’s true that some of them have dropped out, or have been eliminated in party nomination processes, or haven’t done anything EXCEPT file an FEC “statement of candidacy.” Most of them won’t appear on any state ballots, or even register themselves with election authorities as write-in options.

On the other hand, some candidates who haven’t submitted FEC statements may show up on your ballot this November. Candidates are only required to file an FEC Form 2 once they’ve raised or spent $5,000. In some states, ballot access doesn’t cost that much.

If you’re an American voter, you have options. Republicans and Democrats will tell you that you’re “wasting your vote” if you don’t pick one of the two leading brands. I don’t think they’re right — what’s the point of voting if you’re not voting for who or what you actually support? — but even if they’re right, well, it’s your vote to waste, isn’t it?

For once I agree with Ted Cruz: If you vote, vote your conscience.

Thomas L. Knapp (Twitter: @thomaslknapp) is director and senior news analyst at the William Lloyd Garrison Center for Libertarian Advocacy Journalism (thegarrisoncenter.org). He lives and works in north central Florida.

PUBLICATION/CITATION HISTORY

“Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, St. George, Utah Spectrum, 07/27/16
“Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Ventura County, California Citizens Journal, 07/27/16
“Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, OpEdNews, 07/27/16
“Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, CounterPunch, 07/28/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Pahrump Valley, Nevada Times, 07/29/16
“Election 2016 — Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Newberry, South Carolina Observer, 07/29/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Dover, New Hampshire Foster’s Daily Democrat, 08/01/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Fayette, West Virginia Tribune, 08/01/16
“Think 3’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Orangeburg, South Carolina Times & Democrat, 08/02/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Montgomery, West Virginia Herald, 08/02/16
“Election 2016: You have more than two choices,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Columbia, South Carolina Panorama, 08/02/16
“Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Pacific Daily News [Guam], 07/28/16
“Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Green Bay, Wisconsin Press-Gazette, 07/28/16

Op-Eds

Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are

May 5, 2016 Thomas L. Knapp 8 Comments

Six months ago, who would have bet on Donald Trump as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, even given juicy odds? But here we are.

Who would have predicted the last two Republican presidents, the immediate past GOP presidential nominee, and the Republican Speaker of the House declining even lukewarm endorsements for their party’s horse? Yet that’s what’s happening.

Over on the Democratic side, who expected Bernie Sanders to erase Hillary Clinton’s 50-point leads and go toe to toe with her — or for that matter to win a single primary other than perhaps his home state of Vermont’s? Well, guess what?

And then there’s Clinton herself, not just continuing to run but continuing to win. This, even as she faces possible compelled deposition relating to her use of, and an ongoing FBI criminal investigation into mishandling of classified information via, a non-secure, privately owned mail server — a server allegedly hacked by, probably among others, now-incarcerated Romanian hacker Marcel Lehel Lazar, aka “Guccifer.” A confidential source that I just invented tells me Clinton shot a man in Reno just to watch him die. I’m skeptical. But not as skeptical as I would have been a year ago.

Over in third party territory where I live, some activists are convinced that all this #NeverTrump #FeelTheBern #WhichHillary stuff portends a breakout year for the Libertarians or the Greens. Again, I’m skeptical. Again, not as skeptical now as last Christmas.

There’s a major crackup/realignment going on in American politics, from the parties’ rank-and-file all the way up to leadership. The nation’s transpartisan ruling class is in the throes of something approaching civil war. Maybe, hopefully not, one as dangerous as the crackup preceding the REAL Civil War.

The pundits, myself included, have been churning out novel theories to make sense of all this for as long as it’s been going on. Each theory enjoys a half-life of a week or so as it decays into the next. Those of us who arrogate to ourselves the job of explaining stuff to the rest of you are at least as lost at sea as you are. Not, as you’re no doubt noticing, that it shuts any of us up.

It’s going to be a long six months between now and the election. Maybe at the end of it we’ll have some kind of epiphany or valuable takeaway to show for it. But I wouldn’t bet on that either.

PUBLICATION/CITATION HISTORY

“Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Key West: The Newspaper [Florida], 05/06/16
“Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, OpEdNews, 05/06/16
“Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Ventura County, California Citizens Journal, 05/07/16
“A long six months,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Orangeburg, South Carolina Times & Democrat, 05/11/16
“Election 2016: Wherever you go, there you are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Montgomery, West Virginia Herald, 05/11/16
“Election 2016: Wherever you go, there you are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Fayette, West Virginia Tribune, 05/12/16

Op-Eds

Bernie Sanders Won’t Drop Out. Here’s Why.

April 23, 2016 Thomas L. Knapp 6 Comments

Bernie Sanders says he’s taking the Democratic presidential nomination contest all the way to the party’s national convention in Philadelphia at the end of July. Believe it.

With increasing intensity after each primary or caucus he loses — and for that matter after each primary or caucus he wins — party big-wigs call on him to concede the race and get out of Hillary Clinton’s way. Politico‘s informal April survey of anonymous Democratic “insiders” has nearly 90% wanting Sanders out no later than the DC primary in mid-June and only 10% urging him to hold out to the bitter end.

Why isn’t he listening to the 90%? As a Florida Democrat told Politico, “[t]here is no path, and there is no math.” Actually there are at least four paths.

Path #1: Clinton’s health fails in a very big and very public way. She’s had multiple public fainting spells since 2005, including one resulting in a broken elbow in 2009. In 2012, she suffered a concussion and was hospitalized with cerebral venous thrombosis, a life-threatening blood clot condition. Her campaign health statement acknowledges these problems and throws in hypothyroidism to boot, although characterizing the 67-year-old as enjoying “excellent” health.

Path #2: Clinton is indicted in, or otherwise dragged down over, the “Servergate” affair, in which she appears to have illegally mishandled classified information while Secretary of State.

Path #3: Clinton comes to big legal or political grief over apparent connections between large donations to her family’s foundation on one hand and her actions as Secretary of State on the other. For example, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia donated $10 million to the Clinton Foundation and Boeing donated $900,000. Later, Secretary Clinton cleared a $29 billion arms deal involving the two parties. You can see how that kind of thing looks. There may be some “there” there.

Path #4: The texts of Clinton’s Wall Street speeches, for which she received millions of dollars in honoraria, are leaked. Clinton’s refusal to release those texts tells us that their release would be politically damaging. Everything comes to light sooner or later. If it’s sooner — that is, before July — we may find out how just how damaging.

Any of these four scenarios might result in Hillary Clinton’s ignominious withdrawal from the presidential race and release of her delegates, followed by the party’s scramble for an alternative nominee. If Bernie Sanders doesn’t quit, he becomes the odds-on favorite for the job.

So he won’t quit. And now you know why.

PUBLICATION/CITATION HISTORY

“Bernie Sanders Won’t Drop Out. Here’s Why.” by Thomas L. Knapp, OpEdNews, 04/23/16
“Bernie Sanders Won’t Drop Out. Here’s Why.” by Thomas L. Knapp, Ventura County, California Citizens Journal, 04/24/16
“Bernie Sanders Won’t Drop Out, Here’s Why,” by Thomas L. Knapp, CounterPunch, 04/25/16
“Bernie Sanders Won’t Drop Out. Here’s Why.” by Thomas L. Knapp, Uintah Basin, Utah Standard, 04/26/16