US president Donald Trump loves being “first.” Whenever something newsworthy happens, big or small, in fact or in fantasy, he reliably touts it as being unprecedented in American, possibly even world, history, and a either a personal, positive accomplishment or an unjustified persecution (“witch hunt”).
When it comes to bragging rights, he’s certainly entitled to some:
He’s the first president elected without previously either holding public office or achieving significant military victory as a general.
He’s the first Republican, and second ever, president to serve non-consecutive terms (Grover Cleveland did so in the 19th century).
He’s the first president impeached twice (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton only managed that one time each), the first president inaugurated while under indictment for a crime, and the first former president convicted of a felony.
He’s the first president to host an Ultimate Fighting Championship match at the White House (are you not entertained?).
And now, he’s the first president to oversee US surrender in not one, but two, wars.
James Madison, Harry Truman, and Richard Nixon were forced to eat crow in one war each.
Like Nixon with Vietnam, Trump didn’t start, but did negotiate US surrender in, the 20-year war in Afghanistan. Personally, I put that on the positive, not negative, side of the “accomplishment” ledger, even though he failed to follow through on the actual withdrawal, leaving that job (and the blame for what exit from a lost war looks like) to Joe Biden.
Like Madison and Truman with the War of 1812 and Korea, Trump now says he’s ending a war he started and lost, this time with Iran.
The terms of the US surrender remain partially under wraps, but in broad outline seem to consist of 1) the US getting out, 2) Iran letting the US get out, 3) so long as the US lifts sanctions and pays reparations.
Which, really, isn’t a bad deal if Trump can pull it off. The war was stupid, evil, and pointless from the beginning, and the absolute best outcome we could ever hope for was minimal American casualties and an eventual end to the attendant economic disaster.
That outcome may be on the table, if we can get two flies out of the ointment.
Fly Number One: The victors also insist that Trump must force a real ceasefire in Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. Benjamin Netanyahu is shaking his fist and yelling that he’ll do whatever he pleases. The only way Trump can likely force that issue is to credibly threaten an end to US military aid/ assistance and an invitation to Iran to keep fighting the Israelis absent US interference. It’s not obvious he’s possessed of the testicular fortitude to make that wise move.
Fly Number Two: Trump’s own credibility. Between February and this week, he announced that a “deal” was”near,” “very close,” etc., no fewer than 38 times before finally saying a “deal” was done. He announced strikes that ended up not happening, ceasefires under which firing didn’t cease, and other seeming moves in which the only actual movement turned out to be hot air rising as hot air naturally does. This “deal” could turn out to just be more of those false promises and more of that hot air.
But hey, maybe things will work out. Maybe Trump will withdraw his “armada” from the Persian Gulf region and let the world get back to shipping oil, fertilizer, and other products through the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe the US economy can get started on a “return to normalcy.”
If so, hey, let the guy add another “First Place” trophy to the shelf in his vivid imagination.
Thomas L. Knapp (X: @thomaslknapp | Bluesky: @knappster.bsky.social | Mastodon: @knappster) is director and senior news analyst at the William Lloyd Garrison Center for Libertarian Advocacy Journalism (thegarrisoncenter.org). He lives and works in north central Florida.
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