Tag Archives: Donald Trump

Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000

July 27, 2016 Thomas L. Knapp Leave a comment

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Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump says Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is a “fringe candidate.” I’m not sure what definition of “fringe” Trump is using. Johnson is a former governor, elected twice as a Republican in a Democrat-leaning state. Trump’s main presidential qualification seems to be his legendary skill at trolling his opponents on Twitter.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton hasn’t deigned to notice likely Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Instead she’s dispatched proxies like runner-up Bernie Sanders (“We have got to defeat Donald Trump. And we have got to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. … this is the real world that we live in”) to heap scorn on the practicality of a post-Philadelphia campaign from Clinton’s left.

OK, I admit it: History and money say the odds are with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton — that one of them will be the next president of the United States. The last time a third party or independent candidate really threatened to win the White House was 1992, when Ross Perot knocked down nearly 20% of the popular vote, having at one time polled ahead of both Republican incumbent George HW Bush and the eventual winner, Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

But it’s strange year. It feels like almost anything could happen. And while Clinton and Trump are the frontrunners, the field is, well, YUGE.

As of July 27, the Federal Elections Commission lists 1,814 candidates for president on its web site.

It’s true that some of them have dropped out, or have been eliminated in party nomination processes, or haven’t done anything EXCEPT file an FEC “statement of candidacy.” Most of them won’t appear on any state ballots, or even register themselves with election authorities as write-in options.

On the other hand, some candidates who haven’t submitted FEC statements may show up on your ballot this November. Candidates are only required to file an FEC Form 2 once they’ve raised or spent $5,000. In some states, ballot access doesn’t cost that much.

If you’re an American voter, you have options. Republicans and Democrats will tell you that you’re “wasting your vote” if you don’t pick one of the two leading brands. I don’t think they’re right — what’s the point of voting if you’re not voting for who or what you actually support? — but even if they’re right, well, it’s your vote to waste, isn’t it?

For once I agree with Ted Cruz: If you vote, vote your conscience.

Thomas L. Knapp (Twitter: @thomaslknapp) is director and senior news analyst at the William Lloyd Garrison Center for Libertarian Advocacy Journalism (thegarrisoncenter.org). He lives and works in north central Florida.

PUBLICATION/CITATION HISTORY

“Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, St. George, Utah Spectrum, 07/27/16
“Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Ventura County, California Citizens Journal, 07/27/16
“Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, OpEdNews, 07/27/16
“Election 2016: Think Three’s a Crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, CounterPunch, 07/28/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Pahrump Valley, Nevada Times, 07/29/16
“Election 2016 — Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Newberry, South Carolina Observer, 07/29/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Dover, New Hampshire Foster’s Daily Democrat, 08/01/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Fayette, West Virginia Tribune, 08/01/16
“Think 3’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Orangeburg, South Carolina Times & Democrat, 08/02/16
“Election 2016: Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Montgomery, West Virginia Herald, 08/02/16
“Election 2016: You have more than two choices,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Columbia, South Carolina Panorama, 08/02/16
“Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Pacific Daily News [Guam], 07/28/16
“Think three’s a crowd? Try 2,000,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Green Bay, Wisconsin Press-Gazette, 07/28/16

Op-Eds

Yes, a GOP Delegate Revolt is Possible

June 29, 2016 Thomas L. Knapp 3 Comments

Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, is heading toward July’s national party convention with a majority of delegates (as “bound” by state primaries and caucuses) in hand. But ever since it became clear that he would garner that majority, both he and the GOP leadership have spent a good deal of time trying to snuff out talk of a floor revolt by those delegates against his nomination and in favor of some other candidate’s.

“The Republican National Committee put out a statement ‘you can’t do it, it’s not legal, you can’t do it, you’re not allowed to do it,'” says Trump.

Is Trump right? Is it “illegal” for the delegates to do what they want instead of what Trump and the RNC claim the rules demand?

In a word, no.

Keep in mind that at a national convention, the delegates run the national committee, not the other way around. They make the rules. They can change the rules. They can suspend the rules. And even the rules as written leave room for a revolt.

In order to receive the nomination, Republican National Convention rule 40(d) requires a candidate to receive a majority of “the votes entitled to be cast.” In other words, the votes of a majority of the total number of registered delegates, not just of a majority of the delegates who happen to actually vote.

Rule 16, section 2, forbids the convention’s secretary to recognize the vote of a delegate bound to a particular candidate by a primary or caucus outcome if that vote is cast for another candidate … but no rule requires a delegate to vote at all.

If enough Trump-bound delegates with “votes entitled to be cast” decline to vote on the first ballot, Trump won’t get a majority on that ballot. And on subsequent ballots, delegates are no longer bound to candidates — they can vote for their nominee of choice.

100% possible, 100% legal … but how likely? Well, that depends on the party’s leadership.

Party officials enjoy quite a bit of power at conventions. At the recent Libertarian National Convention, there were times when a “quorum call” (a head count to ensure enough delegates are present to legally do business) would have resulted in adjournment. There were calls from the floor to make that happen … but the chair apparently just didn’t hear them (I’m sure you get my meaning). Supporters of Ron Paul’s 2008 and 2012 Republican presidential campaigns still complain about the party establishment’s dirty parliamentary tricks at caucuses and conventions.

The likelihood of a delegate revolt in Cleveland is really mostly a matter of whether or not Reince Priebus and Company WANT a delegate revolt in Cleveland. On that question, your guess is as good as mine.

PUBLICATION/CITATION HISTORY

“Yes, a GOP Delegate Revolt is Possible,” by Thomas L. Knapp, OpEdNews, 06/30/16
“Yes, a GOP Delegate Revolt is Possible,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Key West: The Newspaper [Florida], 07/01/16
“Yes, a GOP Delegate Revolt is Possible,” by Thomas L. Knapp, CounterPunch, 07/01/16
“Yes, a GOP delegate revolt is possible,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Bucks County, Pennsylvania Courier Times, 07/01/16
“Yes, a GOP Delegate Revolt is Possible,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Ventura County, California Citizens Journal, 07/01/16
“Yes, a GOP delegate revolt is possible,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Westerly, Rhode Island Sun, 07/02/16
“Yes, a GOP Delegate Revolt is Possible,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Uintah Basin, Utah Standard, 07/05/16

Op-Eds

Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are

May 5, 2016 Thomas L. Knapp 8 Comments

Six months ago, who would have bet on Donald Trump as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, even given juicy odds? But here we are.

Who would have predicted the last two Republican presidents, the immediate past GOP presidential nominee, and the Republican Speaker of the House declining even lukewarm endorsements for their party’s horse? Yet that’s what’s happening.

Over on the Democratic side, who expected Bernie Sanders to erase Hillary Clinton’s 50-point leads and go toe to toe with her — or for that matter to win a single primary other than perhaps his home state of Vermont’s? Well, guess what?

And then there’s Clinton herself, not just continuing to run but continuing to win. This, even as she faces possible compelled deposition relating to her use of, and an ongoing FBI criminal investigation into mishandling of classified information via, a non-secure, privately owned mail server — a server allegedly hacked by, probably among others, now-incarcerated Romanian hacker Marcel Lehel Lazar, aka “Guccifer.” A confidential source that I just invented tells me Clinton shot a man in Reno just to watch him die. I’m skeptical. But not as skeptical as I would have been a year ago.

Over in third party territory where I live, some activists are convinced that all this #NeverTrump #FeelTheBern #WhichHillary stuff portends a breakout year for the Libertarians or the Greens. Again, I’m skeptical. Again, not as skeptical now as last Christmas.

There’s a major crackup/realignment going on in American politics, from the parties’ rank-and-file all the way up to leadership. The nation’s transpartisan ruling class is in the throes of something approaching civil war. Maybe, hopefully not, one as dangerous as the crackup preceding the REAL Civil War.

The pundits, myself included, have been churning out novel theories to make sense of all this for as long as it’s been going on. Each theory enjoys a half-life of a week or so as it decays into the next. Those of us who arrogate to ourselves the job of explaining stuff to the rest of you are at least as lost at sea as you are. Not, as you’re no doubt noticing, that it shuts any of us up.

It’s going to be a long six months between now and the election. Maybe at the end of it we’ll have some kind of epiphany or valuable takeaway to show for it. But I wouldn’t bet on that either.

PUBLICATION/CITATION HISTORY

“Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Key West: The Newspaper [Florida], 05/06/16
“Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, OpEdNews, 05/06/16
“Election 2016: Wherever You Go, There You Are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Ventura County, California Citizens Journal, 05/07/16
“A long six months,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Orangeburg, South Carolina Times & Democrat, 05/11/16
“Election 2016: Wherever you go, there you are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Montgomery, West Virginia Herald, 05/11/16
“Election 2016: Wherever you go, there you are,” by Thomas L. Knapp, Fayette, West Virginia Tribune, 05/12/16